Thanks to Eric Chan, who completed his MSc dissertation on the sDNA project, we can now produce cycling models in many cases without needing to model motorized traffic first. This saves planners a lot of effort.
Chan, E.Y.C., Cooper, C.H.V. Using road class as a replacement for predicted motorized traffic flow in spatial network models of cycling. Sci Rep 9, 19724 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-55669-8
We’re pleased to receive some great feedback from Juan de Dios Ortúzar (co-author of Transport Modelling (4th Edition) with Willumsen, L.G., 2011) on our longitudinal model of the redevelopment of Cardiff 2007-2010:
“I was well impressed by the work done, including – as you well said – the fairly unusual bonus of testing the estimated model in forecasting against observed data in the future. Congratulations.”
Cooper, C.H.V., Harvey, I., Orford, S. & Chiaradia, A.J. F. Using multiple hybrid spatial design network analysis to predict longitudinal effect of a major city centre redevelopment on pedestrian flows. Transportation (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-10072-0
Nobody found a counterexample, so I think this really is the first time a strategic pedestrian model had a proper forecast test: given pedestrian data prior to changes in urban layout, could we correctly predict what would happen to pedestrian flows after the change? Short answer – yes. Much like recent sDNA cycling models, this is based on a multiple hybrid sDNA approach. Although the above paper does not look at mode choice, we expect similar techniques to be applicable (watch this space).